Monday, April 23, 2007

More Macro Musing

First off, just so everyone is clear - I am in no way a macroeconomist. My only course in monetary economics was in the core and I had that as an undergrad. These are simply my only mildly educated thoughts, with the hopes that my commenters can point me to good resources.

Now, two markets which introduce much of the messiness into non-neutrality are the labor market and the housing market. Unfortunately these two markets account for the lion's share of economic activity.

However a few facts are striking to me

(1) Both of these markets entail a good deal of matching. You don't just go out and buy a house, you buy a particular house in a particular location. You don't just take a job, you take a particular job.

(2) There seems to be a great deal of surplus associated with both jobs and housing. For example, you lose a job or you lose the house. Being laid off or being foreclosed on are particularly stressful events in people's lives.

(3) Regardless of whether or not these housing and employment contracts have to be nominally rigid they are nominally rigid. That is, people choose to have jobs that pay a certain amount no matter how good business is and people choose to have mortgages that don't move with interest rates.

The second fact is extremely striking because one can choose a mortgage that moves with the market and can save money by doing so. Yet, few people choose this.


My initial feeling is that the matching produces surplus which leads people to try to secure it by writing contracts with nominal rigidity.

So perhaps there is this sort of problem, some of the variance in the labor and housing markets comes from money and some from real shocks. I want to insure against the real shocks, but how can I write a contract that insures against real shocks without insuring against nominal ones?

We could index for inflation, but that assumes that the shock makes its way through to the price level. House else can you insure against a money shock?

8 comments:

dWj said...

The prices of both labor and houses seem to be stickier downward than upward; people refuse to accept that they might have to work for fewer dollars than they did before, and many house sellers, rather than take a loss, will pull their house from the market.

That doesn't seem to be the rigidity you're referring to with the interest rate question. I object a little bit to calling it a housing phenomenon; it's a debt phenomenon, and the fact that the debt is secured by a house is, to exaggerate a teensy bit, irrelevant. But watch me refer in the next paragraph to house price inflation as though it were relevant.

The cash flows associated with a pure ARM -- say one indexed to LIBOR -- are hard to foresee and potentially ruinous; if short-term rates go to 15%, even if I'm getting an annual raise on that level, my mortgage payment is going to rise a lot more suddenly and quickly than my paycheck. If my paycheck and housing prices go up in lockstep, and short-term interest rates keep a constant spread above the rate of housing-and-salary inflation -- which is probably a decent approximation over time periods that aren't too short -- then it makes a world of sense for me to be making debt payments that are ammortized at a rate corresponding to that basis, so that the percent of equity I have in my house is pre-scheduled and the amount of my paycheck that goes to the mortgage is constant for the length of the loan. This, I think, is what you're suggesting.

This will, however, require negative ammortization in nominal dollar terms if inflation picks up early in the loan; my house is gaining value faster than my debt, as a percentage of the value of the house, is shrinking. This is very much not a sign of credit shakiness or, for that matter, a lack of thrift, but I think people are used to thinking in nominal terms, and believe that they're going backward if the debt is increasing, even if both its purchasing power and their ability to pay it are increasing faster.

Incidentally, I read once where an economist -- I want to say it was Bill Poole, but I gave away the book after I finished reading it, so I can't check that -- commented that economists may underestimate the true per se costs of inflation because everyone they know has a ready handle on logarithms. An economist can simply deflate numbers by price indices where appropriate, and allow for expected inflation, and quite possibly do such things almost intuitively, possibly even unconciously, while Farmer Jones is busy enough worrying about the moisture content of his soybeans that his own mechanisms for planning for the future are more notably disrupted by such things as the change in the value of the dollar.

dWj said...

I don't think it was Poole; I think it was John Taylor, of the "Taylor rule".

It was a book from a small symposium on monetary theory, of which the two principal participants were either Taylor or Poole and someone else famous, and the other of Taylor or Poole then had a smaller contribution as well. I think it was from the late nineties.

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