tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2108689830988180246.post4956324766294521684..comments2023-12-20T05:33:20.386-05:00Comments on Modeled Behavior: Til DeathKarl Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863281026797375080noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2108689830988180246.post-7709146043525262882010-05-28T03:47:08.955-05:002010-05-28T03:47:08.955-05:00ready made review sites -
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I tend to think of the natural assumption as being that housing prices will appreciate in the future as they have in the longer term. A high future return isn't necessary, so long as there's no need to "give back" recent gains.<BR/><BR/>As for the concern about young people's housing liability, insofar as that has gone up because of a lowering in the discount rate, the present value of my future income has gone up to match. That the economy has decided that extant physical capital is more valuable than it had previously thought doesn't make it more urgent that we pre-pay on the services that capital will provide in the future, nor does it mean the services will necessarily be more expensive themselves.dWjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12072494989829344049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2108689830988180246.post-34508115947557745132007-03-17T18:45:00.000-05:002007-03-17T18:45:00.000-05:00I think the simpler explanation, though, is that a...<I>I think the simpler explanation, though, is that average household net worth is at an all-time high</I><BR/><BR/>My problem here is two fold. <BR/><BR/>One, I think most people are aware that much of the build up in housing prices came from temporarily low interest rates.<BR/><BR/>From a finance prospective you might say that the underlying fundamentals haven't changed and so you shouldn't value your portfolio as highly as the market has, as the saying goes its only capital gains when you cash out.<BR/><BR/>From a man on the street perspective, you might think - yeah my house is worth a lot now, but that just means that the price won't rise as fast later so nothing has really changed.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Two, to the extent that the gains in housing do represent a move to a higher growth path for housing isn't this really just a transfer from one generation to the next? <BR/><BR/>Housing should show up as a gain on middle-aged balance sheets but a liability on the balance sheets of young renters who should now be saving furiously for a down payment.Karl Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05863281026797375080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2108689830988180246.post-5868544351710803282007-03-16T18:48:00.000-05:002007-03-16T18:48:00.000-05:00This could be an explanation if a trend toward wor...This could be an explanation if a trend toward working later is more important than the trend toward increased longevity. I'm pretty sure average length of retirement is growing, but that in and of itself doesn't necessarily disprove what you say.<BR/><BR/>I think the simpler explanation, though, is that average household net worth is at an all-time high, and that -- until recently, at least -- housing, a significant part of that, was appreciating rapidly. The NIPA "savings" statistic doesn't count capital gains as income -- it's likely that, while us young folk save up to establish our grubstake and retirees dissave, that those in the middle have gone from a situation a generation ago where non-saving increases in net wealth weren't sufficient to prepare for future desires to a situation in which they are.dWjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12072494989829344049noreply@blogger.com