Friday, August 3, 2007

What's Next

The start from what I am working on now




A Contribution to the Theory of IQ and Economic Growth


This paper takes Garett Jones seriously. Forty years after Robert Solow’s classic article suggested that long run growth depends on increases in total factor productivity Jones and Schneider (2006) proclaim:

stylized facts related to IQ and productivity are ready and waiting for the theorist who seeks to explain a large part of the puzzle of cross-country productivity differences. Accordingly, persistent difference in national average IQ—regardless of their source—may play an important role in answering Prescott’s (1998) call for a theory of total factor productivity


In a series of papers Jones, twice with Schneider argues, that

1) IQ is one of, if not the most powerful predictor of economic growth

2) IQ is a proxy for and indeed may be the primary source of otherwise unobserved worker heterogeneity

3) IQ correlates heavily with a tendency towards cooperation

4) The effect of IQ is more powerful at the macroeconomic level than the microeconomic level

5) The effect of IQ on growth rates is persistent and likely associated with higher growth rates rather than higher steady states

6) The importance of IQ on economic growth has been increasing since at least the mid twentieth century

7) At least in a naive sense the growth does not appear to cause changes in IQ

My goal below is to provide a theory consistent with these facts.

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