Thursday, October 4, 2007

NFP to be lower than Expected - BLS is playing catch-up

My non-model guess is 50K new jobs created.

See Calculated Risk on a good chart showing BLS vs ADP estimates of private employment. The ADP report shows less volitionality and there is reason to believe that BLS has overshot the peak. To date BLS is reporting 200K more private jobs than ADP. I expect that the BLS report will be playing catch up in the coming months.

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