Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Rate Cuts and You

Mike asks how the rate cuts will help the common man. In some ways this question cuts to the heart of monetary theory and policy. In principle the sole purpose of monetary policy should be to help the common man. Is that whats going on now.

Yes, and no. Its very very tempting for the monetary authority to focus heavily on assets prices and as such the upper class. You get instant feedback about expectations, liquidity, and overall wealth by looking a equity and credit markets.

To find out whats happening to the Joe on the street takes years and even then we are often not sure if we have the right metrics. Moreover, Wall Street is often clamoring for help while the Joe Sixpack may not even know what the Fed is.

However, cuts (and hikes) do wind up having their biggest effect on the weakest members of society.

Why?

Because, those members are the most vulnerable to inflation and unemployment. When the Fed cuts now the hope is threefold.

1) This will lead to more favorable mortgage and credit card rates which will relieve the payment stress on average consumers

2) That if consumers can slowly, rather than dramatically reduce spending growth (as they must) then businesses can adjust without resorting to mass layoffs.

3) That we can ease pressure on the banking system so that more people and businesses will be able to get credit when they need it.

All of these things should ease the stress on the common man. The reason I did not believe we would have cuts this morning and some economists are upset about them is because it looked as if the Fed was going to far to stem losses in financial markets.

This is a really hard call because losses in financial markets can lead to pains for the average worker if it means that corporations have a hard time raising capital and need to instead turn to layoffs.

At the same time, however, more vulnerable Americans who have relatively fixed incomes are susceptible to inflation and there is some evidence that inflation causes the entire system to be sluggish. Not to mention the problem of encouraging financial speculators to take risks if they believe the Fed will bail them out.

So, the upshot is that the cuts should reduce some stresses on average people and hopefully reduce painful layoffs.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

So this isn't a catering to Wall Street? Aren't they just delaying the inevitable? This can't be good for the dollar or inflation.

How come the ECB is more concerned with inflation than the Fed?

dWj said...

I think the timing of today's cut was more Wall-Street--driven than the fact of it. The real data were sufficient to justify a 50 to 75 bp cut; if they cut another 50 next week I'll believe a bit more in market-pandering.

Anonymous said...

"You are generally so insightful, Good timely topic..
If you are interested in mortgages, loan, finance metrics and KPI in business, check this web-site to learn more about Metrics and Development Metrics.

http://www.business-development-metrics.com. "

Anonymous said...

flatten your abs -
forex auto money -
forex auto pilot -
forex confidante -
game tester guide -
governmentregistry -
government registry -
healthy urban kitchen -
higher faster sports -
homebrew installer -
homemadeenergy -
home made energy -
i am big brother -
instant profit machine -
i want a teaching job -
joyful tomato -
lose man boobs -
lower body make over -
macro virus -
magic of making up -
make money taking surveys -
malware bot -
maternityacupressure -
maternity acupressure -
meet your sweet -
moles warts removal -
money siphon system -
muscle gaining secrets -
my airfare secrets -
my miracle loans -
my out of control teen -
natural cancer treatments -
ovarian cyst cures -
pc optimizer pro -

Anonymous said...

satellite pc box -
save the marriage -
spy no more -
spyware stop -
super seduction power -
surefire trading challenge -
tattoo me now -
the bad breath report -
thedietsolutionprogram -
the diet solution program -
the dog food conspiracy -
the mini site formula -
tmj help -
tonsil stones remedies -
truth about abs -
twitter trick -
vincedelmontefitness -
vince del monte fitness -
warp speed fat loss -
wedding speech 4u -
win clear -
xbox 360 red light fix -
xp repair pro -
500 love making tips -
acid alkaline diet -
advanced defrag -
alpha male system -
amazing cover letters -
anti spyware -
anti spyware bot -
article rewriter -
art of approaching -
auto cash system -
burnthefat -

Anonymous said...

quit smoking today -
ranking loophole -
reg clean -
reg defense -
regi cleanse -
registry easy -
registry genius -
registry winner -
reg sweep -
reg tool -
reverse mobile -
richard mackenzie direct -
rig worker -
rocket chinese -
rocket french -
rocket german -
rotator cuff training -
rss feeds submit -
save the marriage -
site builder elite -
six figure yearly 2009 -
sleep tracks -
sold in 21 days -
spyware stop -
stop being tired -
stop your hair loss -
the bad breath report -
thedietsolutionprogram -
the diet solution program -
tonsil stones remedies -
top secret magic code -
truth about abs -
turbulence training -
turn your photos into cash -