Wednesday, January 9, 2008

What Happened in New Hampshire

There is a lot talk about what turned the tide for Hillary; the cry, the contrarian nature of New Hampshire, Chris Matthews, the debate.

Yet, in my mind I cant help but wonder how many women in Iowa were afraid to tell their husbands and boyfreinds that they supported Hillary. Caucus is out in public and subject to public pressures. Women may have decided to keep the peace rather than echo their support.

The when the pollster called New Hampshire the next day the state was swept up in Obama fever. By Tuesday, however, when women were all in alone in the voting booth and had to decide whether they were going to kill the hope of Hillary being president or let her live for the day, they went with their gut.

16 comments:

Student said...

So, the men of Iowa are so close-minded that they are angered by the thought of a woman in charge. BUT those same men are not so close-minded as to object to an African-American in charge? Pretty odd views those Iowans have.

Selectively assuming the worst in people is a tricky game.

karl said...

Well there is the simple fact that Hillary has much higher negatives, particularly among men than Obama combined with the fact that Hillary's previous advantage with women disappeared during the Iowa caucus and reappeared in New Hampshire.

I don't think its a matter of assuming the worst but assuming that people really do have these long regesteried positions and that the odd event was a fluke

TGGP said...

The usual story is that polls exaggerate support for African American candidates (known as the Bradley or Wilder effect) due to people being unwilling to admit their prejudices to others. I haven't heard whether it applies to women. Perhaps some social scientist should do a paper on that if it hasn't already been done.

Prasanna said...

TGGP, it is possible that Obama may have suffered from the Bradley effect. So the NH result may have more to do with Obama/white voters than Clinton/women voters.

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Anonymous said...

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