Wednesday, October 31, 2007

A Cut on These Numbers????

My fellow bloggers have repeatedly said that the looming recession is "worse than expected." I am not sure what tea leaves they are reading.

Perhaps, they mean that housing is collapsing faster than estimates? But, we knew that would happen didn't we? All forecasting models assume that the future will be like the past. Yet, no person seriously thought this future would be like any past that we've seen. Underperforming the models was to be expected.

What wasn't expected was the increase in new jobs, surging GDP and consumers with their credit cards out in force.


A cut on these numbers is downright irresponsible and could ironically make long term rates go up on justifiable inflation fears.

No cut today. Perhaps, no cut in December. We need to see some slack first.

11 comments:

Mike said...

I hope you're correct, but I have doubts they won't cut.

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